New potash mines and the 2025 Critical Minerals List: how emerging reserves could stabilize K supply

Potash earns critical mineral status

When the US Department of the Interior updated the Critical Minerals List in 2025 to include potash, it formalized what the agriculture industry already knew: global potassium supply is too concentrated in too few jurisdictions. Canada, Russia and Belarus together account for roughly 65% of world potash production capacity. The sanctions imposed on Belarusian and Russian exports since 2022 demonstrated how quickly supply disruptions can ripple through global fertilizer markets.

The critical minerals designation unlocks federal permitting fast-tracks, tax incentives and loan guarantees for domestic potash development. More broadly, it signals to investors worldwide that potassium supply diversification is a strategic priority. This article examines the new mine projects, their timelines and what they mean for KNO₃ users who depend on reliable potash supply.

New mine projects to watch

Jansen, Saskatchewan (BHP)

BHP's Jansen potash mine in Saskatchewan represents the single largest potash investment in decades. Phase 1 is on track for first production in late 2026, with an initial capacity of 4.35 million tonnes per year of KCl. At full buildout (Phase 2, expected by 2030), Jansen will produce 8.5 million tonnes annually, making it one of the largest potash mines in the world.

Jansen's significance extends beyond volume. Its solution mining approach and modern processing infrastructure set a new benchmark for energy efficiency and water use in potash production.

Woodsmith, North Yorkshire, UK (Anglo American)

The Woodsmith polyhalite mine, now under Anglo American ownership, targets first production of polyhalite (a multi-nutrient potassium mineral containing K, S, Mg and Ca) by 2027. While polyhalite is not a direct substitute for KCl or KNO₃, it adds diversity to the global potassium supply and is particularly suited to organic and low-chloride farming systems.

Khemisset, Morocco (Emmerson)

Emmerson's Khemisset potash project in Morocco is advancing through permitting. The deposit contains approximately 537 million tonnes of KCl resource. First production is targeted for 2028. The project's proximity to European and African markets could reduce transport costs and create a new non-traditional supply corridor.

Ochoa, New Mexico, USA (Intercontinental Potash)

With critical minerals designation in hand, Intercontinental Potash is accelerating development of the Ochoa deposit in southeast New Mexico. The project targets production of sulphate of potash (SOP) rather than MOP, which positions it to serve the premium end of the market where KNO₃ also competes.

Danakil, Ethiopia (Allana Potash/Yara)

The Danakil potash deposit in Ethiopia's Afar region contains enormous reserves of sylvinite and carnallite. Yara holds an interest in the project, which could bring significant new capacity to the East African and Indian Ocean markets by the late 2020s.

What new supply means for KNO₃ markets

Potassium chloride (KCl/MOP) is the primary potash input for conventional KNO₃ production via the reaction:

KCl + HNO₃ → KNO₃ + HCl

More diverse, more stable MOP supply translates to more predictable KNO₃ production costs and better supply security for growers who depend on potassium nitrate. The Jansen mine alone will add enough capacity to cover roughly 6% of current global potash demand.

For KNO₃ users, the practical implications are:

• Price stability: More supply sources reduce the price spikes that occur when any single producer faces disruption
• Availability: Major KNO₃ manufacturers (SQM, Haifa, ICL) will have more feedstock options
• Quality: New mines often produce higher-purity MOP, which simplifies downstream KNO₃ manufacturing

For context on how different production processes convert raw potash into finished KNO₃, see our production page.

The geopolitical dimension

The critical minerals designation also reflects a broader geopolitical reorientation. Governments in the US, EU and India are actively working to reduce dependence on Russian and Belarusian potash. Trade policy instruments including tariffs, import licensing and strategic stockpile programs are being deployed alongside mine development incentives.

India, the world's second-largest potash importer, signed a long-term supply agreement with Canada Potash Corp in 2025 to secure 1.5 million tonnes per year through 2035. China has accelerated development of domestic potash resources in Qinghai Province and is exploring deep brine deposits in Sichuan.

These shifts will gradually reshape global trade flows and create new regional supply hubs, reducing the concentration risk that has plagued the potash market.

Timeline and expectations

Project	Location	Expected First Production	Annual Capacity (Mt KCl equiv.)
Jansen Phase 1	Canada	Late 2026	4.35
Woodsmith	UK	2027	5.0 (polyhalite)
Khemisset	Morocco	2028	0.8
Ochoa	USA	2028	0.3 (SOP)
Danakil	Ethiopia	2029+	2.0+

Combined, these projects add 10+ million tonnes of new potassium capacity by 2030, equivalent to roughly 15% of current global demand.

What growers should do

1. Lock in supply relationships: Work with your KNO₃ supplier to understand their feedstock sourcing strategy and how new mine supply affects their pricing outlook
2. Monitor price trends: New capacity entering the market should exert downward pressure on potash and KNO₃ prices from 2027 onward
3. Plan ahead for sustainability credentials: New mines operating under stricter environmental standards will produce "low-impact" potash that may carry sustainability certifications valued by food-chain buyers

For a broader view of global potassium consumption trends, visit our consumption data page.

FAQ

Will new mines actually lower KNO₃ prices? Increased MOP supply should moderate the potash component of KNO₃ pricing. However, nitric acid costs (driven by ammonia/natural gas prices) are the other major input and are influenced by separate market dynamics.

Does critical minerals status guarantee new US potash production? It improves the investment case significantly through faster permitting and financial incentives, but mine development timelines are still measured in years. Near-term US potash supply will continue to depend on imports from Canada and other sources.

How does polyhalite from Woodsmith compare to KNO₃? They serve different roles. Polyhalite (14% K₂O, 19% S, 6% MgO, 17% CaO) is a multi-nutrient, low-analysis product suited to broad-acre and organic applications. KNO₃ (46% K₂O, 13% N) is a concentrated, highly soluble product for precision nutrition. They are complementary rather than competing products.